COLOMBO, Sept 19 (Askume) – Sri Lankans will vote on Saturday to elect a new president in a closely contested election that has weakened the leadership of incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe.The fate of economic reform is expected to depend on who faces the left-wing opponent.
The collapsing economy is one of the key issues facing voters in 2022 after a massive dollar shortage, inflation soaring to 70%, currency devaluation and electricity prices rising by 65%.
Although inflation fell to 0.5% last month and gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow for the first time in three years, millions of people remain trapped in poverty and debt , and many are looking to the next leader with hope for a better future.
“With many Sri Lankans still struggling to make ends meet, the presidential election is likely to be close, tense and have a decisive impact on determining the country’s future political direction,” said Alan Keenan, senior Sri Lanka adviser at the International Crisis Group. “The presidential election is likely to be close and tense.”
The election is seen as a tough contest between Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and Marxist-minded politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
The Institute for Health Policy (IHP) Sri Lanka Poll Tracker shows independent candidate Wickremesinghe in third place. Dissanayake is ahead, while Premadasa of the centrist, more left-wing Samagi Jana Balawegaya Party (SJB) is in second place.
Both Premadasa and Dissanayake have said they may make changes to taxes and public spending linked to the International Monetary Fund bailout package. Dissanayake also proposed a new domestic debt restructuring scheme.
Probability of runoff
About 17 million of Sri Lanka’s 22 million people are eligible to vote in 2022 in the first elections since protests over economic hardship forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and later resign.
Wickremesinghe is a former prime minister who was elected by parliament to complete Rajapaksa’s term. Steady recovery.
Sri Lanka’s first-past-the-post system allows voters to cast up to three preference votes for candidates of their choice, with the candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote being declared the winner.
If no candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff election will be held to count preference votes for the two leading candidates, a scenario analysts say is highly likely given the closeness of the election.
Dhanath Fernando, an economist at the Advocata Institute, a Colombo-based think tank, said most people are expected to put aside traditional political stances and focus more on the economy.
The election results are expected to be announced on Sunday and the new president will be sworn in soon after.
Whoever wins the election will have to ensure Sri Lanka’s public finances are strengthened, foreign lenders are paid, investment is attracted and the International Monetary Fund’s four-year programme is completed.
“The main criticism of the government is that it has not shown sufficient sensitivity or empathy on the important issue of debt restructuring, nor has it ensured that the burden of such adjustments falls on those most vulnerable to its impact,” but this should not be the case for those least able to afford it.
