VIENNA, Sept 19 (Askume) – Austrians will elect a new parliament on September 29, with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) set to form a government for the first time in its post-war history.
As the FPÖ is unlikely to win an absolute majority, it will have to find a coalition partner to govern.
What are Austrian voters most concerned about? The rising cost of living and tighter immigration rules have been key issues since police foiled an attack on a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna last month.
Widespread flooding in August and September put climate change on the agenda.
The Islam-critical Freedom Party is about 3 percentage points ahead of the ruling conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) with 27-29% of the vote, while the center-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) are in third place with about 21%.
The FPÖ promotes an “Austria First” agenda and supports so-called “re-immigration” , which is the return of people to the countries where their families originally came from, especially those who have broken the law. The SPÖ was more moderate but still wanted to redistribute refugees to ease the burden on Austria.
Despite Austria’s falling inflation rate, its main interest rate has remained above the EU average for almost two years, while its growth rate has always been below average. Austria is heavily dependent on Russian gas and is under increasing pressure to break this habit.
What happens if the FPO wins?
FPO chairman Herbert Kickl is a staunch critic of the EU and this year he and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor OrbanAlliance , Orban is a coward in Brussels who wants to restrict immigration.
Critics said the kicker is based on a Nazi-era tale, a charge he denies. But his oratory skills have helped him emerge as an anti-establishment candidate — even though he served as interior minister as recently as 2019.
Most of the political elite believes that Kiker is too close to Russia and opposes providing aid to Ukraine. He was anathema to other party leaders, who vowed never to work under him.
But if he is willing to make someone else prime minister, as Dutch nationalist Geert Wilders did earlier this year, it could open the way for Austria’s first post-war liberal-led government to step in. However, he has shown no interest in doing so.
What alliances might form?
The Freedom Party’s only viable coalition partner appears to be the ÖVP, which will exceed expectations in June’s European elections, finishing slightly behind the Freedom Party.
An ÖVP victory would hamper Kickl’s bid for prime minister, making an ÖVP–FPÖ coalition more likely.
Current polls show that the ÖVP will become a kingmaker and will have to choose between a coalition with the FPÖ or Austria’s first three-way coalition with the SPÖ and the liberal NEOS or the Greens (currently the ÖVP’s junior partner).
Neighbouring Germany launched the first three-way coalition in 2021, but it proved ineffective and unpopular , fuelling support for extremists. A replication in Austria (where there are many small governments) could eventually lead to the growth of the FPÖ.
Whoever wins will push for tighter immigration rules. An FPÖ-ÖVP coalition would open the way for tax cuts, while a more centrist coalition could accelerate the transition away from Russian gas.
Voting and what happens after that
Voting centers open at 6:45 am (0445GMT) and close at 5 pm (1500GMT). These estimates are usually very reliable and are published shortly after. Results are usually known the night before, when all but the mail-in ballots have been counted. Counting mail-in ballots can take several days.
President Alexander van der Bellen, the former leader of the Green Party, will ask one party to form a government. Usually the party that comes first has a chance to form a government, but Van der Bellen has reservations about the Liberals and Kicker in particular.
It usually takes two months to reach a detailed joint agreement. Its contents and the new government are later announced.
