OTTAWA, Sept 10 (Askume) – Justin Trudeau is likely to remain Canada’s prime minister until next year, political analysts say, even though his minority Liberal government is faltering because a small left-wing party has failed to provide support in key votes.
After nearly nine years in power, Trudeau faces voter fatigue and last week the NDP scrapped a 2022 pact that had been agreed to but supported Trudeau in exchange for more social spending.
The change means the 52-year-old prime minister is no longer confident of winning a confidence vote in the elected House of Commons, where the Liberals hold only 154 of the 338 seats.
If the 170 opposition MLAs vote against the Liberals, the government will fall before its term ends at the end of October 2025, forcing an early election.
In this case, the polls clearly show that the right-wing conservative party led by Pierre Pliyev would win a majority.
It appears that Trudeau will be safe for at least two months. The government will next face a confidence vote, which will require the House of Representatives to approve a so-called budget update, in late November or December.
When such a vote occurs, the NDP will have the option to vote with the Liberals. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said last week that his party would decide on such votes on a case-by-case basis.
Crucially, there are doubts the NDP will seek to oust Trudeau, as polls show the Conservatives, who blame the government for rising prices and the housing crisis, are unlikely to reduce the number of seats they won in early polls.
“There is a widespread expectation that the NDP is actually planning to overthrow the government, but I haven’t seen any evidence of that,” said Philippe Lagacé, a professor at Carleton University in Ottawa and an expert on constitutional law.
Singh ended his automatic endorsement of Trudeau after months of personal complaints that voters did not trust the NDP to increase government social spending.
But Nick Nano, director of the Nano Research Centre, said the NDP has no interest in unseating the Liberals anytime soon because Singh needs time to establish his own identity and differentiate himself from Trudeau after supporting him for so long.
“It’s hard to be with the liberals one day and oppose them tomorrow,” Nanos said.
Winter elections
According to parliamentary rules, the three opposition parties have a total of 7 opportunities to present proposals of their choice between September 16 and December 10. The largest opposition party, the Conservatives, may have three opportunities to remove Trudeau from office.
But the timing of the opposition proposals is in the hands of Liberal House Leader Karina Gould, who could put them together by the end of the December session.
A Liberal defeat on such a proposal would mean a winter election, which would be unpopular with voters. The outcome could be hard to predict, which could thwart any NDP attempt to overthrow the government.
Gould’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
NDP MLAs can abstain from crucial votes. In 2010, former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff used the tactic to avoid toppling a minority Conservative government while in opposition.
Former senior NDP official Carl Belanger said Singh’s case-by-case strategy has its limits.
He said, “The NDP cannot afford to give the Liberals multiple confidence votes without getting something in return.”
As an alternative, Trudeau could turn to the Bloc Québécois, the third-largest party in the House of Representatives. It leans center-left like the Liberals but wants Quebec to secede from the Canadian confederation. Working with separatists could be politically toxic for the Liberal Party.
If Trudeau manages to stay in power until 2025, the federal budget vote, which usually takes place in March or early April, could become the next threat. By then, he may decide to hold elections in the country, although one of Trudeau’s top aides said the prime minister has no plans to hold an election.
In addition to external threats, Trudeau is facing discontent within his party over the poor election results. Despite this, he insisted that he would not resign as Liberal leader and prime minister.
Trudeau and other members of his Liberal caucus gathered in British Columbia this week to map out the strategy. At its formation, the Liberals announced that former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, often cited as a possible replacement, would chair a task force reporting to the prime minister on economic growth.
Discontent within the Liberal Party and speculation about Carney has grown after the party lost safe seats to the Conservatives in a special election in June . Trudeau’s allies believe he could face increased pressure to resign if the party loses another special election in his Montreal stronghold on September 16.
