Askume, Sept 12 – There is a 71% chance of a La Nina season between September and November, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast that similar weather conditions are expected to continue from January to March next year.
Why is this important?
La Nina is a weather pattern caused by cooler-than-normal temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean; it is also associated with flooding and droughts in the Caribbean and an increase in hurricane frequency.
La Niña can affect global agriculture by reducing rainfall and increasing drought conditions .
situation
The cycles between El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases typically last between two and seven years.
Earlier this week, the Japan Meteorological Agency said there was a 60% chance of a La Niña event in the Northern Hemisphere between now and winter.
A Askume survey showed that Brazilian soybean farmers could increase their production by 14% in the 2024/2025 season compared to the previous season, as expectations for increased rainfall in the last quarter of this year have increased.
Key Quotes
David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics, said: “Agriculture and livestock are clearly the most affected by La Nina, and many of these sectors are important for the production of crops such as soybeans and corn.”
“If the signal is weak, normal La Niña conditions may not occur,” said Jason Nichols, Ecuador’s chief international forecaster. However, concerns about drought and crop damage remain, mainly affecting crops in Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil.
