LONDON, Sept 13 (Askume) – Putin has the power to retaliate if the West allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Russia, and options could include striking military targets or, in extreme cases, a military invasion, three analysts said. nuclear tests to demonstrate our intentions.
East-West tensions over Ukraine are entering a new and dangerous phase, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden meeting in Washington on Friday to discuss whether to allow Kiev to use long-range weapons against Russian targets such as the ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles.
President Vladimir Putin on Thursday issued his clearest warning yet that the West would go to war with Russia if it took such steps, as he said it would change the nature of the conflict.
He promised an “appropriate” response but did not explain what that meant. In June, however, he discussed the option of arming Western enemies with Russian weapons to attack Russian overseas targets and deploying conventional missiles within striking distance of the United States and its European allies .
Ulrich Kuhn, a weapons expert at the Hamburg Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, said he could not rule out the possibility that Putin might choose to send some kind of nuclear message, such as a nuclear weapons test, in an effort to intimidate the West.
“This would escalate the conflict dramatically,” he said in an interview.
Kuhn said Russia had not conducted a nuclear weapon test since 1990 (a year before the collapse of the Soviet Union) and a nuclear explosion would mark the beginning of a more dangerous era. He warned that Putin could feel vulnerable in his response to NATO’s growing support for Ukraine.
He said, “Nuclear testing would be a new thing. I cannot rule it out. It is equivalent to ending many international security agreements that Russia has signed over decades.”
Gerhard Mangot, a security expert at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, said in an interview that he also believed it was possible Russia’s response would have some sort of nuclear effect, though he thought it was unlikely.
“The Russians can conduct a nuclear test. They have made all the necessary preparations. They can explode tactical nuclear weapons somewhere in the east of the country to prove that when they say we will eventually eliminate nuclear weapons, if they accept support, this is what they mean.
Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, told the UN Security Council on Friday that Ukraine would become “a direct party in hostilities against a nuclear-armed state” if NATO allows Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia.
“You should not forget it and think about its consequences,” he said.
Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear power, is also revising its nuclear doctrine – the circumstances under which Moscow would use nuclear weapons. Putin has come under pressure from influential foreign policy figures to become more flexible and open the way for limited nuclear strikes against NATO countries.
British response
In the case of the UK, Moscow could declare that London will establish an alliance with Russia if Kiev allows it to launch the Storm hybrid proxy war against Russia, former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov said on social media platform Telegram on Friday.
Markov predicted that Russia could close the British embassies in Moscow and London, attack British drones and warplanes near Russia such as the Black Sea, and launch missiles at targets in Romania and Poland.
Putin has previously tried and failed to draw a red line for the West , leading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to urge the West not to be too cautious in confronting Moscow, refusing to downplay its importance.
But Putin’s latest warning about long-range missiles is seen both inside and outside Russia as a threat to London or Washington if they allow their missiles to be used against Russia.
Putin’s warnings were broadcast repeatedly on Russian state television, raising expectations that he would take action, said Mangeot, of the University of Innsbruck.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a news conference on Friday that Putin’s message was “very clear and unambiguous.”
Markov, the former Kremlin adviser, said Russia had decided to break with the “boil the frog in hot water” strategy on the grounds that the surge in Western aid to Ukraine was aimed at provoking a strong reaction from Russia.
“The step the West is planning to take now is just a small step, but it crosses a red line where we will really be forced to respond. We will assume you are at war with us.”
“Whether the West wants a full-scale war with Russia or not, the critical moment has arrived,” Sergei Mironov, leader of the pro-Kremlin party, said in a press statement on Friday.
tension in ukraine
Coon said that aside from a nuclear strike or attacks on British assets, a more predictable response could include increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Mangeot predicted that Kiev would bear the brunt of Russia’s military response if the West gave Russia the green light, and he did not expect Russia to launch a military attack on NATO territory.
Kuhn said another option for Russia could be to take “hybrid” actions, such as undermining Europe or interfering in U.S. elections.
The danger facing the West, Mangeot said, is that it doesn’t know where Putin’s red lines are.
He said, “Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons, receive Western satellite imagery, and receive assistance from Western military advisers violates Russia’s vital interests.”
“So I think people who say ‘nothing is going to happen, let’s just do it’ are wrong.”
(This article has been republished to correct a typographical error in the headline)
