The outcome of the November presidential election is likely to influence US climate policy and comes at a time of rapid growth in US solar and energy storage deployment.
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie said in their latest quarterly market report that U.S. solar installations rose to a record 9.4 gigawatts in the second quarter of this year, up from a record 11.8 gigawatts in the first quarter of utility-scale capacity.
Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised to roll back carbon emissions regulations implemented under a Biden administration , pull the US out of the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change, and push for the construction of new power plants, though he has not specified which ones those would be.
Trump said he would “take back all unspent funds” from the 2022 inflation reduction bill and targeted green policies implemented by the Biden administration.
The INF Act includes billions in clean energy tax credits, which have accelerated solar and storage deployment across the United States . Trump has not revealed which parts of the inflation bill he would target, and said during the presidential debate on September 10 that he was a “big fan” of solar power. Any changes to the INF Act require congressional approval.
Vice President Kamala Harris said she is proud of the Biden administration’s clean energy accomplishments. The party’s platform cites the success of the Inflation Act and calls for incentives to upgrade transmission networks to support the deployment of solar and wind power, building on the progress made over the past four years .
While Republicans have some concerns about negative rhetoric about clean energy, Jim Murphy, president and chief operating officer of clean energy developer Invenergy, said at a Askume event, “We’re also looking at the beneficiaries of the policies that were enacted today.”
Many Republican leaders represent areas where new solar generation and clean technology manufacturing plants are creating jobs.
Murphy said, “This [inflation bill] spurred investment and new job creation in red states and blue states, probably more in red states than blue states.”
The US Department of Energy (DOE) said in the latest US Energy and Employment Report that the US solar industry is expected to create more than 18,000 new jobs in 2023 with a growth rate of 5.3%, making it the fastest growing in the energy industry.
Solar and storage deployment has accelerated since the Inflation Act, with domestic module manufacturing capacity increasing from 8 GW to 31 GW, according to data from SEIA and Wood Mackenzie. Invenergy used the inflation bill incentive to build one of the United States’ largest solar panel manufacturing plants in Ohio.
Chart: U.S. solar installation forecast by segment
Ed Hirsch, an energy researcher at the University of Houston, said at a Askume event that regardless of the election outcome, investment in clean energy and the grid will continue to grow in the short to medium term.
“The [Inflation Act] stimulus measures will be implemented over the next few years,” he said. “I don’t think Trump’s election will hurt progress at all.”
The Congress was divided
The INF Act provides tax credits for clean energy projects and bonus credits for projects that purchase U.S. manufactured materials or are located in low-income areas or areas affected by the energy transition . The bill also provides tax credits for clean technology manufacturing and creates a market for transferable tax credits that promote private sector investment.
Murphy and Sanjay Patnaik, a fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, said the long-term prospects for an inflation bill stimulus will depend on the outcome of congressional races and the presidential election. There are 33 seats up for election in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Chart: Electricity generation structure by state in the United States in 2023
Patnaik said at a Askume event that the inflation bill stimulus measures could continue or even be extended if the Democrats win the presidency and both houses of Congress, while a Democratic president and a divided Congress could usher in a continuation of the status quo.
Patnaik said a Republican win “depends on how much [inflation bill] money individual lawmakers are willing to give up to spend in their districts.”
Congressional Republicans told Invenergy they were unhappy with the way the inflation bill was passed without Republican votes, “but also recognized the positive aspects of the bill and what it has done in their states with job creation and economic growth,” Murphy said.
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Hannan Parvizian, CEO and co-founder of integrated solar and thermal battery solutions provider Exowatt, told Askume that even if some provisions of the bill were repealed, its impact on solar power generation would be limited. Exowatt received $20 million in seed funding from OpenAI’s Sam Altman and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz in April.
“We think [the inflation bill] is a benefit — it’s good and makes things cheaper and more viable, but I think even without [the inflation bill] you’ll still see increased use of renewable energy,” Parvezian said.
Tariffs will continue
Both the Biden and Trump administrations have raised import tariffs on solar products , and the Harris administration is expected to follow suit. The glut of panels from China has hurt U.S. and European manufacturers and could lead to further tariff action. Trump has floated the idea of imposing higher tariffs on all imports and has called for additional tariffs on Chinese imports.
“I think if anything, and I think both candidates agree, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains is something they can both support. That’s why we want our products made in the United States and sourced from the United States,” Parvizian said.
Major grid investments will be required in the coming years to deliver power from areas with dense solar and wind power to large load centers.
Permitting and grid connection delays are major challenges facing US cleantech developers. The massive surge in applications from clean energy developers has led to long delays in grid approvals, forcing some developers to look to new markets.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has reformed grid rules to speed up the approval process, but it will take time to have an impact on project timelines.
The permitting bill, introduced by Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and John Barrasso of Wyoming, has received bipartisan support and aims to speed up permitting for transmission, mining and liquefied natural gas export projects. It’s unclear whether concessions would be needed to pass Congress.
“We are all carefully watching federal action to allow for reforms, including the Manchin-Barrasso bill,” Murphy said.
He said the bill could be clarified to “speed up the installation and construction of more transmission lines, which is important”.
The Biden administration is prioritizing permitting reforms to accelerate the deployment of clean energy. Recent measures include streamlining the federal permitting process, new approval deadlines, and expanding development areas on federal lands.
Patnaik said the Harris administration is expected to “continue to accelerate the status quo on permitting of renewable energy projects,” while the Trump administration “could derail the permitting of fossil fuel projects by weakening conservation and climate laws.”
The views expressed are solely those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Askume News, which is committed to integrity, independence and non-partisanship under the principles of trust. Askume’ activities are part of Askume Professional, a division of Thomson Askume and operates independently from Askume News.
