The presidential campaign is hard, hard, hard. But don’t believe what I or anybody else says. No matter what you hear, nobody knows what will happen.
Polls aren’t always accurate, but that’s all we have. So here’s what we know: Nationally, the race is a draw, plus or minus. Despite the fluctuations, it’s clear that former President Trump’s approval ratings remain high, even as Harris’ campaign has soared since the vice president topped the Democratic ticket this summer.
But remember, national polls are an indicator of overall support, but this is not how we elect the president. Clearly, the presidency is decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
What does this mean? As always, this election will be decided by location-specific polling. Specifically, voters in a few states—Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia—will determine our future. Here’s what those polls look like, based on reliable polling averages:
PA: Harris +1.6
Edge: Trump +0.4
IM: Harris +3.2
WI: Harris +1.7
NV: Harris +1.4
GA: Trump +1.6
It may seem like Harris is ahead, but the reality is more complicated than that. In the past, polls have underestimated Trump’s support on election day.
If you ask me, the real story is what young voters will do. Young voters will be especially important this cycle: Gen Z and Millennial voters will account for nearly half of eligible voters for the first time. In 2020, youth turnout was 50%, which was significantly higher than previous years and may be a sign of high turnout again in 2024.
No matter who wins, this election will be decided by thousands of votes. So young people—and whether they vote—are the most important variable. Current polls show that young people overall are extremely enthusiastic about Kamala Harris, but there is a large and stark gender gap between men and women under the age of 29. A recent New York Times/Siena poll in six battleground states showed that young women preferred Harris by 38 points, while young men preferred Trump by 13 points, a 51-point gap.
I’ve been on the campaign trail for the past few weeks and I’ve seen examples of both of these things being true: 1) young people are very excited about Kamala Harris, 2) more young people are supporting the team than the Blue Jays. The first is evident in the number of students at the voter registration events I’ve attended. Not only were they excited to vote themselves, but they encouraged their friends to vote as well.
There are undoubtedly many reasons for the gender gap, but one of them is that young women are more motivated than ever. Why? Maybe it’s because this is the first time in a generation that reproductive rights are being voted on at the federal level.
Please note that as we enter the final stretch of the campaign, the count and momentum can change rapidly each day. Don’t forget to mark the first and only vice presidential debate between Governor Tim Walz and Senator J.D. Vance on October 1 in your calendar. I’ll be keeping an eye, so, as always, stay tuned for more!
