BUENOS AIRES, Sept 9 (Askume) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.9% in August, the lowest since the start of 2022, a Askume survey of economists showed on Monday, although only down from the 4% level reached in the previous month.
The rate would be a sign of progress for the government of liberal President Javier Miley, which has struggled to rein in rapidly rising prices, though the marginal size of the slowdown reflects growing difficulty.
According to a survey of 24 local and foreign analysts, analysts agreed that the increase in consumer prices in the South American country last month was probably caused by rising service and transportation costs.
“Deregulated prices have once again pushed up inflation,” the Liberal and Progressive Foundation (LYP) said in a report, citing utility costs of electricity and gas, and public transport costs.
The survey showed that forecasts for inflation last month ranged from a low of 3.4% to a high of 4.4%, meaning the median estimate and the median were both 3.9%.
Inflation has slowed steadily since right-wing economist Mayer took the helm in December, rising from 25.5% that month to 4.2% in May, 4.6% in June and 4.0% in July, although some economists indicate the process appears to be stalling.
“The economic slowdown has become more complex since the start of the year,” consultancy Ecogo said. Core inflation has been ‘stagnant’ at around 4% since May and August and appears to have failed to break this trend.
Economists, however, said September could bring some good news on the inflation front after the government announced late last month that it would cut import and freight taxes to 7.5% from the previous 17.5%.
“We expect the impact of the tax cut in September to be felt on the prices of imported goods and, to a lesser extent, services that use imported inputs,” said Aldo Abram, director of LYP.
Argentina’s national INDEC statistics agency is due to release August inflation data on Wednesday.
