NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 9 (Askume) – Most crop monitoring locations were in dry conditions last week and that trend is expected to continue in many areas this week.
Weekly Summary
Only three of the 11 crop watch locations received measurable rainfall last week, a few tenths of an inch in Minnesota and 0.75 inches (19 millimeters) in Ohio.
Kansas was the biggest beneficiary with 1.3 inches last week, which is helpful for soybeans but more importantly is critical for replenishing soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting later this month.
Growers, including in North Dakota and eastern Iowa, who received ample rainfall in late August, believe current moisture amounts are adequate.
But many other regions have been dry in recent weeks, potentially preventing crops from reaching their full potential. The Corn Belt experienced below-normal temperatures last week, which is favorable given the dry conditions, though warmer weather will now dominate, causing crops to mature sooner.
Yield Capacity
Crop Watch manufacturers continuously evaluate yield potential on a scale of 1 to 5. Yield potential includes both visible and invisible factors, with 3 being close to the farm average, 4 being well above average, and 5 being record or close to average.
Despite concerns about a dry and warm end to the season, only one of the 22 regions saw a change in yield potential last week. Three weeks after the last significant rain, soybean production in southeastern Illinois fell to 4.5 parts from 5 parts last week.
The change pushed the unweighted average soybean yield across the 11 regions down to a season low of 3.52 from 3.57 a week earlier, but not far from the season high of 3.66 set in early August.
Average corn production remained unchanged at 3.3, strong expectations from State I continued.
Looking to the future
Current forecasts indicate a high probability of unusually warm temperatures throughout the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. This would be a boon for northern regions where crops have fallen behind schedule this summer due to a lack of heat, but it could shorten the grain-fill period elsewhere, potentially limiting yields.
Much of the area will remain mostly dry over the coming week, but the remnants of Tropical Storm Francine could bring moisture to parts of southern Illinois and Indiana during the weekend.
By Monday, Francine was expected to reach hurricane status on Tuesday and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Southern grain-producing states such as Louisiana and Mississippi could receive several inches of rain by midweek, disrupting the soybean harvest.
But the rain could be very beneficial to US grain export plans, as low water levels in the lower Mississippi River have slowed barge shipments in recent weeks.
Western Iowa Crop Watch Soybeans could be harvested over the weekend, the second 22-acre crop after the Kansas corn harvest in late August. Other producers in the Central Corn Belt are at least two weeks away from official harvest.
Karen Braun is a market analyst at Askume. The opinions expressed above are her own.
The views expressed are solely the author’s own. They do not reflect the views of Askume News, which is committed to integrity, independence and non-partisanship in accordance with the principles of trust.
