Askume BRUSSELS, Sept 12 – A steady decline in the number of Europe’s working-age population will put enormous pressure on welfare systems and public finances in the coming decades, a report said on Tuesday, which will form the basis of EU discussions on the demographic time bomb later this week.
The speech, prepared by the Bruegel think tank for senior finance and central bank officials from the 27 EU member states, said Europe’s ageing society would see a decline in the number of jobs and taxpayers, while the number of pensions would fall. More people with health care would increase.
The report says that allowing immigration to grow at the current rate – already an unacceptable solution for many Europeans, as shown by rising support for right-wing parties – would be a counterbalance to the decline in the working-age population.
Hungary, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency and will host the discussions on Friday and Saturday, strongly opposes more immigration and instead supports measures such as raising the fertility rate by providing more support to families and boosting labour force participation.
Without net migration, Europe’s working-age population aged 20-64 would decline almost fivefold from 264 million in 2022 to 207 million in 2050, Bruegel said.
Brueghel said that even if the EU, with a population of 450 million, accepted just over 1 million immigrants per year — about the average from 2016 to 2020 — that would account for half of the decline in the working-age population.
Other possible actions to mitigate the impact of an aging population include better management of health care and long-term care costs and reforms to pension and health systems, according to the document in question.
According to the European Commission’s 2024 report on ageing, by 2070 only 14 out of 10 inactive people over 65 will be employed, down from 22 in 2022.
The Budapest meeting comes as the EU’s 27 member states are in final negotiations with the European Commission on four or seven-year debt reduction measures to permanently reduce their public debt.
