Askume London, Sep 19 – The International Energy Agency said in a report that Russian attacks on energy infrastructure
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 , Ukraine’s energy system has become the target of Russian attacks, resulting in power outages lasting several hours a day in some regions and limited power supply in some areas.
Russia stepped up its attacks in March, which Kiev said appeared to be an attempt to weaken the system ahead of winter, when temperatures typically drop below -10°C (14°F).
The European Union offered help on Thursday , saying it was dismantling a fuel-fired power plant in Lithuania for reconstruction in Ukraine, with the aim of restoring 2.5 gigawatts of generating capacity and boosting electricity exports.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that this summer, when electricity demand is typically lower than in winter, Ukraine’s power generation fell by more than 2 gigawatts from peak demand of 12 gigawatts. Peak electricity demand this winter could rise to as much as 18.5 gigawatts, the report said.
Even if the country’s nuclear power plants recover from maintenance outages and the country imports 1.7 gigawatts of electricity from its European neighbours, Ukraine’s supply deficit could reach 6 gigawatts, equivalent to Denmark’s maximum annual demand, the report said.
“Attacks on infrastructure, unexpected equipment failures, and lapses in maintenance cycles further increase the risk,” the report said.
According to official data, Ukraine used about 18 gigawatts of electricity last winter, including imported power. Ukraine generated 13 gigawatts in March last year, an industry source said.
The Energy Department said Thursday that more than 1,000 attacks from Russia have caused the loss of 9 gigawatts of generating capacity in the country this year. Ukraine has also attacked Russian energy infrastructure, but on a smaller scale, mostly targeting oil refineries.
Natural gas deal dead
Under normal circumstances, Ukraine can meet its natural gas needs through domestic production and storage, but colder-than-normal winters will increase import needs.
Ukrainian coal-fired power plants may also have to switch to natural gas due to potential cuts in coal supplies. Most coal mines are located close to the front line in eastern Ukraine.
Russia’s gas supply transit agreement with Gazprom is due to expire at the end of this year, and Ukraine has said it does not want to extend it. Additional gas supplies must come from central and eastern Europe.
The second risk is disruptions in gas and electricity supplies to neighboring Moldova. Although Moldova no longer relies directly on Russian gas to meet the needs of the territories it controls, about two-thirds of its electricity comes from a Russian-backed power plant in Transnistria.
Continental Europe’s transmission capacity is shared between Ukraine and Moldova. If Moldova has a shortage, the two countries need to reach an agreement on the allocation of imports, the report said.
To help Ukraine’s energy security this winter, repairs and construction work should be carried out to protect assets from further attacks, especially grid substations near nuclear power plants, the International Energy Agency said.
Domestic energy-saving measures are needed, as well as the supply of more small-scale combined heat and power units and better delivery of imported electricity to the worst-affected areas.
Ukraine also needs to import about 600 million cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in September and October to reach its gas storage target by November 1.
