BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Sept 30 (Askume) – Chinese tourists may travel longer than last year during Golden Week which starts on Tuesday but this will not lead to a surge in spending, tourism experts said.
With the economy in the grip of a recession and consumer confidence at historic lows, he expects many travellers to opt for cheaper domestic or short-haul overseas destinations and take advantage of low airfares during the week-long National Day holiday.
Traditionally, Chinese people travel the most during holidays, especially when traveling abroad. This year, the government expects average daily travel volume in the country’s transport sector to grow by just 0.7% year-on-year.
“If tourism spending remains the same as last year, that would be a good result,” said Liu Simin, an official at the tourism branch of the China Future Research Society, a Beijing-based research organization. “When the economy is good people are more willing to travel, but when the economy is not growing, tourism does not grow.”
Wang Xin, an office worker in Beijing, said she would travel with her family to Yangzhou, a city near Shanghai known for its lakes, gardens and fried rice.
“There are no tolls on holidays, so we go by car instead of taking the train,” said the 45-year-old. “In this kind of economy, it’s better not to spend money unnecessarily. Many people are losing their jobs, and at my age, if that happened to me, I wouldn’t be able to find another job.”
Before the outbreak, his family’s Golden Week destinations included Singapore and the United States.
Drop in air ticket prices
Data from travel platform Flight Master shows that domestic air ticket prices are expected to be 21% cheaper than the same period last year, while international economy class air tickets are expected to be 25% cheaper in 2023 than in 2019, a decrease of 7% from 2019.
Top international destinations for outbound travellers such as Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore are expected to remain short-haul hubs in Asia.
China’s largest online travel agency Ctrip (9961.HK) also said the most popular destinations remain in Asia, but there has been a big shift this year toward long-haul destinations such as Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and France. Long-haul trips and short-term stays have been driven by domestic travel.
“Travelers will take advantage of lower fares to travel longer distances, book longer stays and stay in higher-end hotels,” HSBC analysts said in a note.
Analysts said last week’s massive stimulus measures may have some impact on spending, but the effect will be limited. They predicted holiday shopping could reach 2023 levels, but not exceed them.
Some foreign airlines such as British Airways (ICAG.L) and Qantas (QAN.AX) have pulled out of the company due to lack of demand and fierce price competition from local carriers.This year flights to China have been reduced or stopped .
AirAsia Philippines announced this month it would stop flights between Manila and China by the fourth quarter, with local media quoting its chief executive as saying China’s share of its passenger traffic had fallen from 30% in 2019 to 1.5% this year.
AirAsia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
There are some exceptions, however. Korean Air (003490.KS) said regional travel demand is improving and it announced plans to launch or resume several routes to and from China this month.
