DUBAI/PARIS, Sept 19 (Askume) – Iranian and European officials will meet at the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week to test whether the two sides can resume diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear programme while easing pressure on Israel and the West.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian after being elected in Julyon his first trip to the WestHe will arrive on American soil six weeks before the November 5 US presidential election , which could reelect former President Donald Trump, a staunch opponent of the deal with Iran.
Three Iranian officials told Askume that the relatively moderate Pezeshkian would send a message that “Tehran is open to diplomacy” while stressing that Tehran would not bow to pressure.
Iran’s leaders want to ease US sanctions over its nuclear programme. But relations with the West have soured since the October 7 attack by the Iran-backed Hamas militant group in southern Israel and Tehran has stepped up its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The conference was overshadowed by this week’s bombings of pagers and handheld radios used by the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah , raising concerns about the wider Israeli-Arab conflict.
It is unclear whether the Europeans and Iranians will be able to find areas of agreement in New York. Iran has accelerated its nuclear program while limiting the monitoring capabilities of the United Nations nuclear watchdog.
Britain, France and Germany, known as the “European Three” and the only European powers to sign the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, insist on a tough policy to force Tehran to negotiate because they fear Washington’s election interference will embolden Tehran, leaving almost no room for wiggle room.
There was little chance of Pezeshkian stepping down. All decisions regarding Tehran’s nuclear and foreign policy are made not by the president, but by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Iran’s rulers believe the tense standoff with the West over Iran’s nuclear program must end … but through negotiations based on strength rather than mere pressure,” an Iranian official said on condition of anonymity.
Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group, said concrete talks were unlikely before the US election.
But interim measures are possible, such as Iran receiving partial sanctions relief in exchange for increased IAEA monitoring of its nuclear facilities.
“Recrimination is possible. I think it would be beneficial to both parties,” Davenport said.
Iran expresses desire for talks
Khamenei expressed his desire to resume nuclear talks in a speech in August. The appointment of Abbas Araqchi as Iran’s foreign minister – one of the key architects of the 2015 deal to limit Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions – also sends a positive signal.
But both sides are sceptical about what will be achieved at the UN meeting, where Pezeshkian and Araqchi are due to meet European officials.
European countries, which are still parties to the nuclear deal that Trump abandoned in 2018, feel that Tehran’s leadership will not change its position and that a comprehensive agreement covering the nuclear program and Iran’s geopolitical role is currently unrealistic.
This is especially true since Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles last April and has reportedly transferred ballistic missiles to Russia.
“I think our expectations are low. You do something about it and we do something about it. If talks resume, they will be transactional, not transformative,” one European diplomat said.
Another Iranian official said Tehran “welcomes the idea of concessions at lower prices because the situation now is much worse than in 2015.”
The United States, its European ally and Tehran’s arch-rival Israel have accused Iran of using its nuclear programme to develop weapons capabilities. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.
Early reinstatement of ban
The West has few ways to pressure Tehran as it fears that the next US administration, whether led by Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris, will need time to review policies.
This leaves little time to develop a joint action plan before October 2025, when UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which establishes the nuclear deal and provides the authority to reinstate UN sanctions, expires.
“This could take away our main tool to put pressure on Iran, so we have to keep up the pressure now,” a senior European official said.
The E-3 has not yet decided whether it will “lift” the sanctions, but is expected to do so several months before the new U.S. president takes office at the end of January.
Despite US objections, the E3 introduced a resolution condemning Iran at the UN nuclear agency in June , highlighting frustration with the outgoing US Biden administration.
European diplomats and a US official said the Biden administrationEfforts are being made to keep Iran off the President’s desk to make room for other priorities .
“With the elections approaching, the Americans are not ready for serious negotiations… However, if necessary, we will establish relations with European countries and not wait for the United States,” Araki told state television on September 15.
A US State Department spokesperson said the United States was “closely coordinating its approach to Iran with the three European countries, including on issues related to Iran’s nuclear progress.”
The 2015 agreement is expiring, and the international solidarity that existed when Russia and China sided with Western powers during the agreement no longer exists.
“Historically, future deals are harder to reach and less effective in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” said Ali Vaez, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.
