LONDON, Sept 20 (Askume) – When the Philippine coast guard’s largest ship returned to port last week after a five-month siege by Chinese patrol boats and fishing boats near the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea , several crew members were carrying ambulances waiting at the dock.
Philippine officials denounced their decision to recall the BRP Teresa Magbanua and called it a failureVowed to send a new patrol ship “immediately” .
But so far there’s no sign that they’ve done so, and as details of Theresa Magbanua’s latest mission emerge, it’s unclear whether they’ll be able to.
In the past, Chinese officials have talked about a “cabbage strategy” to drive the Philippines and other opponents away from disputed reefs and islands, which they see as too crowded with Chinese patrol boats, fishing boats and other vessels they are unable to send there.
During the Cold War, Western officials used another phrase – “salami strategy” – to describe how the Soviet Union was getting its way “bit by bit” and felt the need to counter this with occasional dramatic displays of Western resolve.
The Philippines has been discussing the move for months. But on the other side of the world, such as in Ukraine, the United States and its allies face opponents who believe time is on their side.
Some US officials reject the idea, pointing to the deteriorating demographics of China and Russia
In August, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said that according to the terms of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,It is “perfectly appropriate” for the US military to run supply missions to its allies in the Philippines.
Philippine Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner said earlier this year that the Philippine government would prefer to conduct such operations alone but could turn to the United States if all other options were exhausted.
“When our troops are already hungry, they have no supplies, they’re dying because our supply mission is blocked, that’s when we need help from the United States,” Browder told reporters in July.
But the reality is that this month the Philippines decided to retreat rather than pursue that option, with officials criticising China as a “school bully” in interviews with US media.
On August 26, Philippine officials said 40 Chinese ships and warships intercepted two Philippine vessels that were replenishing supplies at Magbanua. On August 29, a helicopter was used to deliver some supplies, but it was not enough to resupply the crew (the ship’s standard company was about 70 people) or repair damaged desalination equipment.
In their final weeks on the ship, the crew lived on porridge and rainwater, sometimes distilling and boiling water from the air conditioning system when it was not raining, according to the Philippine coast guard. The ship also needed repairs after colliding with at least two Chinese vessels on August 31, they said.
Photos taken by the Philippines and China showed two tugboats among several other Chinese vessels, fueling speculation that China could try to pull the ship away if the Philippines did not release it, an insult to the Manila government.
Lessons from Cold War Berlin
Despite a 2016 ruling by the United Nations Maritime Court that included the disputed Sabina Island and most of the Thomas Shoal Islands, Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea as its “historic waters” and continues to build outposts and increase maritime activity in part of the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone.
Chinese officials and media welcomed the return of the Magbanua after direct bilateral meetings between Chinese and Philippine officials, saying the ship was “anchored illegally” and therefore subject to official Chinese “control measures.” Neither side has released the content of those discussions.
Under an agreement signed by members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2002, countries including China and the Philippines promised not to build new facilities in the then-uninhabited area, with the aim of preventing the construction of camps or ships from getting stranded. Exercises were held at Mischief Reef, and the Philippines conducted exercises at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999.
However, Beijing has since continued to increase pressure on a handful of tiny islands where the Philippines hosts a small military contingent. In 2012, Chinese patrol vessels and Philippine ships faced off for two months near Scarborough Shoal, another disputed reef. Under a US-brokered agreement, both sides committed to withdraw their troops, but in reality, China is still holding out.
The term “salute strategy” originated with American diplomat Alan E. Lightner, who served as deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Berlin in August 1961. When Soviet and East German troops built the Berlin Wall to enclose the Soviet-controlled eastern part of the city, he suggested that this might be a precursor to cutting off all of West Berlin, which was run by the United States, Britain and France.
“He took such a large piece of salami and digested it successfully without any hindrance, which gave rise to the expectation that he would greedily snatch more pieces,” he wrote in a telegram to Washington, urging the United States to take decisive and prompt action.
US military options
US President John F. Kennedy had the same diagnosis. Three days after Lightner’s message, he ordered US battle groups to reinforce West Berlin and drive into East Germany on closed highways the next day, as permitted by the Potsdam Treaty. Large-scale war was certain if the Soviet Union tried to stop them. It was one of the most tense moments of the Cold War, when US forces were fully prepared for war, waiting for interception or confrontation by either East Germany or the Soviet Union.
Some in Washington want similar measures to bolster the Philippines — they worry that if China continues to push back against Manila, Beijing could use excessive force elsewhere, especially against Taiwan.
US officials have said they believe Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027, but have not yet decided whether to do so.
US and Taiwanese officials strongly oppose China’s sovereignty claims and say only the people of Taiwan can determine their own future. They also worry that the United States may deliberately impose a blockade to end foreign support and trade with Taiwan.
The United States will resume military talks with Beijing after National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited China last month to meet Xi Jinping and other senior officials . Preventing Chinese action against Taiwan and further adventurism in the South China Sea will be high on the US agenda .
Since then, Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, held a video call with General Wu Yun, commander of China’s Southern Theater Command. According to the Financial Times, General Wu Yun will also visit Paparo’s headquarters in Hawaii later this month. According to reports, Michael Chase, a senior Pentagon official responsible for China policy, will also travel to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterparts.
As with the war in Ukraine, the main challenge is timing. Beijing has spent more than three decades strengthening its position in the South China Sea and doubling down on pressure on Taiwan.
Western powers say Russia is currently receiving arms from North Korea and Iran – though those countries deny the charge – but in the long term Russia has the capability to defeat the government in Kiev and end the war, and it has the resources to do so. Progress.
“It’s a dictatorship of time,” Pavlo Palisa, commander of Ukraine’s 93rd Independent Mechanized Brigade, which is fighting in the east, said at a conference in Kiev this week. “We initially hoped it wouldn’t take too long. Now we realize it’s going to be much longer than we expected.”
Herein lies the challenge for Washington. Russian and Chinese propagandists often use the example of Afghanistan to warn US allies in Taiwan, the Philippines, Ukraine and Eastern Europe that they too will one day be abandoned – and so they must withdraw now.
The next US president may have to prove that the United States and its allies can defeat Moscow and Beijing in any conflict.
If they fail to do so, the aging Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin — and those who seek to follow them — may be tempted to take greater risks.
The views expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Askume News, which is committed to integrity, independence and non-partisanship under the principles of trust.
